Numarul 2 / 30 august 2004 /
saptamanal de politica internationala / publicatie personala / Realizator: Nicu Ilie
Economia ar putea creste cu 7% in acest an ROM
Cresterea economica din acest an ar putea atinge un nivel de 7%,
avand in vedere evolutiile pozitive inregistrate pana in prezent,
in special in sectorul agricol, a anuntat, ieri, premierul Adrian
Nastase, in intalnirea cu presedintii consiliilor judetene,
transmite Mediafax. Nivelul cresterii economice estimat la
inceputul anului a fost de 5,5% din PIB, cu 0,6 puncte peste
ritmul inregistrat anul trecut. Premierul a precizat ca membrii
Guvernului analizeaza in prezent atat rezultatele economice din
acest an si proiectele bugetelor pentru 2005, cat si perspectivele
economiei pentru urmatoarea perioada. El a mai afirmat ca
deficitul bugetar de anul viitor se va mentine la aproximativ 2%
din PIB, fata de 2,1% din PIB in acest an. "Discutam acum cu
Fondul Monetar International si cu Uniunea Europeana, pentru a
asigura fundamentul macro-economic in urmatorii ani, cu resurse
relativ limitate", a spus Nastase.
Seful Bancii Mondiale spune ca petrolul nu va trece de 30 dolari ENG
MADRID (AFP) The chief economist of the World Bank predicted in an interview that oil prices would return in a matter of months to a stable level around 30 dollars a barrel after hitting record highs this week of nearly 50 dollars.
Although prices closed down on Friday, many traders predicted that the volatile hikes would continue, but the World Bank's Francois Bourguignon said that, once current uncertainties have dissipated, "I think we will return to a balanced price in a few months' time."
Bourguignon told the Spanish economic newspaper Cinco Dias that market forces would eventually stabilize the price. For example, producers would exploit wells that are not profitable at 30 dollars a barrel, but might be at a higher price. But then an increase of supplies would have the effect of driving the price down again.
He said there were undoubtedly some objective causes for the price rises, such as China's strong growth and economic recovery in the United States and Japan.
However, he said the price rise was also fuelled by speculation and uncertainties over the fate of the Yukos oil conglomerate in Russia or the referendum in Venezuela. He discounted the crisis in Iraq because it had not been an important oil producer before the US-led occupation last year.
The International Energy Agency said earlier this month that the market was in the grip of "irrational exhuberance" even though "the market is tight, production and infrastructure capacity is less than desired and uncertainties continue to weigh on the market."
However, the chronic volatility in Iraq in the face of attacks on installations by insurgents has contributed to a "security premium" of up to 15 dollars a barrel, market experts in London said.
Much of this nervousness is based on sentiment rather than fact. For example, a fire Friday in the northern oil complex of Kirkuk sent prices soaring even though the terminal was already out of action.
Asked what would happen if oil prices remained high for several years, Bourguignon said this could knock a couple of tenths of one percent off world economic growth each year, "but I do not think this will happen, because the market tends towards a balance."
He said developing countries would be the hardest hit by a prolonged rise, with the exception of countries like China and India that have a high rate of economic growth. Europe has been cushioned against high prices by the strength of the euro against the dollar, in which oil is denominated.
Bourguignon said it should not be necessary to raise interest rates within the euro zone because "in Europe, the economic situation is not yet good, and there does not appear to be a risk of inflation to justify a rate increase."
The director general of the International Monetary Fund Rodriguez Rato said in an interview published in the Barcelona daily El Periodico Friday that the world economy was "in a phase of solid and generalized growth" of about 4.6 percent a year.
He said the increase in demand meant that new energy supplies had to be developed -- current production by the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is nearing an all-time high of 30 million barrels a day. But Rato attributed the sudden rise in oil prices mainly to uncertainty and speculation rather than to pressure on supplies. ©AFP
Fara panica ENG
By Neil Weinberg
Back to Grab the Energy Chain
Integrarea in UE va creste puterea leului
De luni, 16 august, incepe functionarea Biroului de Credit. Institutia nou creata va pune la dispozitia bancilor comerciale informatii legate de debitori. Potrivit Directorului general al Biroului de Credit, Serban Epure,Biroul de Credit va umple un gol de informatie pe care bancile il au in acest moment. "Concret, se duce cineva ia un credit, nu stie banca respectiva exact care este indatorarea lui. Unele banci sau majoritatea intreaba daca are datorii la alte banci, omul respectiv spune "Am" sau "Nu am" si aceasta declaratie este luata de buna. Prin Biroul de Credit, banca va sti sigur daca persoana mai are datorii la alte banci. © TVR
|Japonia accelereaza ritmul
Excedentul comercial al Japoniei a crescut cu 44,2 la suta in iulie, fata de aceeasi perioada din 2003, situandu-se la 10,25 miliarde dolari, aceasta fiind a 13-a luna de cresteri consecutive, informeaza agentia EFE.Potrivit datelor cu caracter provizoriu furnizate de Ministerul de Finante, se evidentiaza cresterea exporturilor spre China si alte tari asiatice, ceea ce confirma faptul ca recuperarea economica a Japoniei se bazeaza pe vanzarile pe aceste piete. Exporturile Japoniei spre restul lumii au crescut in iulie cu 14,3 la suta, pana la 47,8 miliarde dolari, in timp ce importurile s-au majorat cu 8,2 la suta, pana la 37,55 miliarde dolari © TVR
|Update (Numarul in lucru)|